A Political and Humanitarian Disaster
February 1, 2023 is nothing to glorify or commemorate as the two-year anniversary of one of the darkest days in Myanmar’s history. It marks 730 days that Myanmar has been taken hostage by her own military led by Gen Min Aung Hlaing.
The bright future of a young democratic Myanmar was decimated by the coup d'état led by Gen Ne Win who ousted a democratically elected government on March 2, 1962. Under his iron boots, one of the most developed and prosperous countries in Southeast Asia was brought down into the one of the least developed countries in the world. It led to political unrest in 1988. Unfortunately, it culminated with recycling of 70-year-old stratocracy by changing the hands of dictatorship among the generals.
In 2008, Gen. Than Shwe cunningly drew a sham constitution designed to secure absolute power to the Commander-in-Chief (CIC) indefinitely before transferring the power to the military’s proxy USDP in 2010. Their political strategy did not go as planned when the people overwhelmingly elected candidates from NLD in 2015. The people defied the military again in 2020 by re-electing the NLD in a landslide in the November elections. The continuation of the NLD’s electoral wins and overwhelming popularity with the people shattered Gen. Min Aung Hlaing’s dream for the Presidency, but it also became an immediate threat to the 2008 constitution crafted by the military and threatened their stranglehold over Myanmar’s economy and businesses run by their families and cronies. In desperation, Gen. Min Aung Hlaing attempted to stage a coup on Feb 1, 2021, the day newly elected parliament members were to be sworn in.
Unlike previous coups, the people of Myanmar revolted against the coup starting with countrywide peaceful demonstration where all generations participated. Despite the non-violent nature of the demonstrations and Civil Disobedience Movements, the military brutally cracked down with its trademark brutal violence using lethal weapons and horrific human rights violations. According to ACLED, 29,550 were killed by security forces (January 13, 2023). https://acleddata.com/ According to AAPP, 17,572 were arrested, 2,289 were killed, 10,754 were still detained (January 31, 2023). 1.5 million people have been displaced and lived in undignified conditions as per UNOHCHR (December 20, 2022). https://reliefweb.int/report/myanmar/myanmar-humanitarian-update-no-25-30-december-2022. 17.6 million https://reliefweb.int/node/3927056 as per OCHA (January 25, 2023) and 5.6 million children https://reliefweb.int/node/3913435 as per UNICEF (December 06, 2022) are in need of emergency humanitarian assistance.
In response to the attempted coup, an ASEAN summit came up with a Five-Point Consensus to resolve the political deadlock on April 24, 2021. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing signed on to the plan initially but dismissed it the next day, deepening the political crisis further. The continued armed crackdown further deteriorated into civil war and regional instability. The military has launched air strikes and shelling intentionally targeting civilians and staged arson attacks against towns and villages in ethic states of Kayin, Kayah, Kachin and Chin, as well as the regions of Sagaing, Magway, and Tanintharyi.
The collapse of the health system due to the military’s actions was exacerbated by the weaponization of COVID-19 during the third wave that hit Myanmar. The humanitarian crisis was deepened by the denial of humanitarian access offered by international NGOs and UN affiliated organizations. The junta reinstated a directive to further restrict the freedom of movement of what remained of Rohingya communities and all but cut off their extremely limited access to basic services. Since the attempted coup, 12 million children have no access to formal education. Any children going to school must have a pledge from their parents of allegiance to the regime. College and universities are open only for political purposes. The schools in conflict areas continue to be attacked and school children are intentionally murdered. The economy contracted by 18% in September 2021 with a growth of 3% in 2022 (lags far behind precoup 6%) according to the World Bank. The currency, the kyat, devalued by 30% in August 2022, and as much as 70% in September 2022. Commodity prices skyrocketed 50-60% with the combined effect contributing to inflation hitting 20%. According to statistics, 13 million people were facing moderate or severe food insecurity in 2022. Farmers growing traditional crops have been severely affected by the armed conflict while opium farming surges since the military takeover. The attempted coup has created a massive financial crisis since day one due to disruption of all ATMs by cutting off phone and internet services. Most companies and firms have suffered declines in sales, shortages in cash flow, and virtually no banking services. The economy was further devastated by increased military expenses and decline in FDI which dropped to a record low of 0.0 in April 2021. Although it rebounded to $ 1.45 billion during the seven months of the FY 2022-2023 (80% from Singapore), it is far below precoup level, and the prospects of recovery are dwindling due to mismanagement, corruption, and political instability.
Looking forward, the junta has plans to legitimize their rule and cleanse themselves to the international community through a sham election scheduled to take place this year. No country, no organization, no one should be deluded into thinking as an “election” that will be held at gun point and be thoroughly rigged. It does not represent the free-will of people of Myanmar, which already was decided in the November 2020 election.This is a blessing in disguise. The fractured Myanmar political parties and ethnic groups as well as the Myanmar diaspora all over the world united and took cohesive action against the military which is unprecedented in Myanmar’s history. The young generation whose hope for freedom, democracy and pursuit of happiness were decimated by the coup have become the major driving force for a new revolution—now known as the Spring Revolution.
Pro-Democracy Political Developments and the NUG
On February 5, 2021, Committee for Representatives of Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH) was formed by a majority elected members of parliament who escaped detention. On February 26, 2021, the permanent representative of Myanmar to the UN, HE Kyaw Moe Tun called for strongest possible action against the military junta as the first blow to the generals on international stage. On March 31, 2021, the military-drafted 2008 Constitution was abolished by CRPH and replaced with the Federal Democracy Charter. The National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC) was established under the Charter, with CRPH, other political parties, EAOs, civil society organizations and CDM groups. On April 16, CRPH formed the interim National Unity Government (NUG). NUG is the most ethnically and gender diverse government in the history of Myanmar with 60% of the ministers and deputy ministers being non-NLD members.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has successfully reached out for high level engagement with international government bodies, United Nations and other International Organizations, and Regional Blocks, such as the EU and ASEAN for the progressive recognition, co-operation and collaboration of diplomatic, economic, financial, judicial sectors and humanitarian support as well as for denial of recognition and for isolation of the military junta and blockage of their representation in the UNGA, international conferences and meetings.
The Ministry of Planning, Finance, and Investment (MoPFI) has developed innovative fund-raising programs including the Spring Lottery, issuing bonds, Eradication of Dictators (EOD), the Spring Valor Condominium, raised $ 110 million; taxation, collected 5.8 billion MMK and also set up a digital monetary system called NUG Pay to counteract on blockage of transactions by the military. MoPFI has cut off financial flows to the military through boycotting military affiliated businesses and industries and assisting in targeted sanctions by the USA, UK and EU. It announced the Three-pillar Framework Guiding Responsible Investment and Continued Operations for foreign investors. The Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management (MHADM) acquires and distributes humanitarian assistance to IDPs in conflict afflicted areas, prisoners, families of fallen heroes, disaster affected people in co-ordination with ethic organizations, CSOs, CBOs, NGO’s, INGO’s and UN organizations. It also supports CDM programs (380,000 CDM) including the People’s Embrace Program for 4000 CDM soldiers and 8000 CDM police officers. The Ministry of Health and Education (MOHE) has set up urgent care centers, 66 hospitals run by CDM health care providers in liberated areas and support the purchase of medical equipment and supplies with innovative funding methods. MOHE opened 4300 community schools run by CDM teachers in liberated areas. It also offers Online Healthcare Education Program. The Ministry of Human Rights (MHR) monitors human rights violations, war crimes and crime against humanity for accountability against junta members. The Ministry of Women, Youth and Children Affairs (MWYCA) focuses on protecting the rights, safety and basic needs of the women (assisting 105,000 pregnancies), youth and children. The ministry of Justice established 25 courts and it focuses on records of crimes committed by the military and its affiliates, legal rectification for damage and prosecution of those evaded legal prosecution. It also collaborated with MoD and EROS regarding military crimes and court martial cases.
On May 5, 2021, the NUG announced the establishment of the Peoples Defense Forces under the Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is charged with systematically organizing the local defense forces—groups that formed organically in local communities to defend against military attacks. These PDFs are being groomed into a professional armed force with 300 battalions. The PDFs have become a formidable fighting force on the ground against the better equipped Sit-Tat. In the face of this resistance, the military has changed their strategy and primarily uses air strikes instead of ground attacks in contested areas. If the PDFs had access to more modernized equipment, they would be an even more formidable force with greater capability to overwhelm junta-controlled units. On September 7, 2021, the acting President of NUG Duwa Lashi La declared the People’s Defensive War against the military junta “With the responsibility to protect the life and properties of the people.”
The prospect of the Spring Revolution is predictable but the duration of it is not. The predictability of an absolute victory is due to the people’s resolute spirit, but it also depends on sustainability of the people through unity, perseverance and adaptability in conjunction with decisive international support by those organizations and states that cherish democracy, as well as leadership by the NUG. The NUG was born out of chaotic crisis and despite it being a young government, it is thriving with limited support and resources. It has gained the visibility and voice on the diplomatic stage, and it has improvised using creative methods to raise funds with the support of people of Myanmar and global Myanmar diaspora. The NUG is still learning on the job. As with any organization, there are criticisms; the NUG should welcome the constructive ones and ignore those that are pessimistic. The NUG is the only plausible leader for the revolution against this 70-year-old military dictatorship which is well funded and draws support from fellow authoritarian states such as Russia and those that turn their heads from Myanmar’s plight.
The Road Ahead
So far, diplomatic efforts by ASEAN and UN to end the violence and restore the civilian government have been fruitless. It is never too late for the international community to learn that a peaceful and democratic Myanmar will be positive force for good. The UNSC must follow its first-ever Resolution 2669 (2022) in Myanmar with a comprehensive and effective plan of action including global arms embargo and a referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for atrocities committed by the military. The UNGA should also recognize the NUG as the legitimate government representing the people of Myanmar.
The US has shown progressive yet guarded support. Although the passage of the Burma Act of 2022 as part of the National Defense Authorization Act is encouraging and morally supporting, it can only be meaningful if it is backed up with concrete action on both pressuring the military and supporting the democracy movement. It would also send a signal to other countries struggling against dictatorships and authoritarian rulers, that, as President Biden has said, “America is back” and engaged with the international community.
The Myanmar crisis is not different from that of Ukraine in principle. Our two countries are struggling to resist oppressors—in Ukraine’s case, invading Russians; in Myanmar’s case, the murderous junta. Not taking more decisive action in Myanmar holds the potential of it being a cancer to the region and a huge geopolitical setback for freedom movements throughout the world.
It is time the US to provide non-lethal assistance such as communication devices, satellite receivers, drones, additional humanitarian assistance, medical equipment, food and clothing, and emergency portable shelters. Much of this can be delivered cross-border in coordination with friendly ethnic groups and creative ways to the heartland. The US should also recognize the NUG so that it can engage the international community in a more effective manner and as a co-equal government.
The co-operation of US, UK, EU, and other allies should be synchronous along with the sincere members of ASEAN. China should no longer play a dubious role in this crisis after she already observed the disappointing incompetency of Min Aung Hlaing and his lieutenants for two years. She needs a trusted partner for her southern neighbor. Other neighbors should also consider their long-term stability of the region and the mutual respect for peace and prosperity that a democratic Myanmar can deliver.
The NUG must lead with a clear message, viable pathway, and visible posture. There is a lot more to learn from President Zalinski in his effective skill in communication, negotiation and persuasion of friends and international donors. Myanmar has been obscured in the international news media by events in Ukraine, Iran, and North Korea to name just a few. The NUG needs to make the world see the atrocities committed by the junta. The NUG needs to take advantage of the creativity of the youth movement to help raise awareness of the crisis of Myanmar. They have been leaders in the Spring Revolution and the NUG should be delegating more responsibility and leadership to this talented generation.
Myanmar people are committed to eradicating this military dictatorship. With our limited resources, we must be innovative and adaptable. We may have differences in opinions, but our immediate goal should be only one—the elimination of this junta to establish a true democracy. We must set aside our differences until we achieve our goal. We must fight the junta on many fronts: diplomatically, economically, militarily, as well as convincing junta enablers that the future of the country lies with the democracy movement and not the junta. Our strength comes from within with help and support from international friends. The junta’s weakness comes from within coupled with isolation from outside. This year we should commit ourselves to a “One-Year Mission” to topple this evil regime. Let’s work together to put in place a strategy and vision to make that happen. Freedom, justice, and democracy must prevail.
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