When the present uprising against the illegal power grab by the Myanmar military from a democratically elected civilian government began two years ago, first in the form of nonviolent protests that later morphed into an armed uprising, many expected that the resistance will eventually be crushed by the military similar to many prior uprisings since 1962.
The newly formed opposition, National Unity Government (NUG), was considered to be an on-line government only with no territory control, no viable armed wing, no charismatic leader, no funding and with little collaboration from the existing but themselves a disjointed group of various ethnic resistant organizations (ERO). Many NUG leaders were felt to be former National League for Democracy (NLD) party loyalists whose government at that time was considered indifferent at best and colluded with the military at worst on Rohingya genocide. The military is a sixty-year-old institution that controlled every aspect of Myanmar citizens functioning like a state within a state. It has its own industries to generate income such as Myanmar Economic Holding Limited where theoretically every soldier owns a small share.
What difference the past two years has made? NUG has been able to erase many of the above-mentioned doubts. It now has an armed wing, People’ Defense Forces (PDF). It raises funds creatively such as by selling non interest paying war bonds. It controls territory. Many countries are increasingly engaging it. It now has representative offices in eight countries including one in Washington DC where Uzra Zeya, the US undersecretary of state performed the ribbon cutting when it opened. NUG is now considered to be truly inclusive with many EROs collaborating in the fight against the junta. It has come out of Aung San Suu Kyi’s shadow standing tall on its own. 53% of NUG Cabinet members are non Bamar ethnics. Only 38% of are NLD members.
The NUG has convinced people that it aims for a truly equal federal democratic union. Junta forces are stretched thin fighting for survival than control at multiple fronts which included Chin, Kachin, Karen, Mon, Karenni, northern Shan and central flat plains of Magwe and Sagaing despite the latter two used to be the main source of fresh military recruits made of Bamar Buddhist majority in the past.
During the recent on-line Global town hall meetings jointly addressed by NUG and ERO leaders, the command structure was disclosed in how the combined fighting forces operate. The ERO military personnel are appointed as battalion commanders given their military experience despite the actual fighting force being made of both ethnic and PDF recruits.
Myanmar military is a shell of its former self. Its officer corps lacks experience. In 1998, Defense Services Academy (Burma’s West Point) cut short its training curriculum to 3 years instead of 4 years while expanding the freshman class to 2-3 times larger emphasizing quantity over quality. Since the mid-1990s, the military also secured peace agreements with many EROs and focused on getting rich by squandering Myanmar’s economic resources. Those actions diminished the battle field experience and quality of its fighting forces.
In 1997 the Defense Ministry ordered that the frontline troops were allowed to fulfil their supply demands locally on their own instead of relying only on the Ministry. This gave these units official permission to rob and forage the villages in the frontlines that are primarily occupied by the ethnic people. Not surprisingly the image and popularity of the military has significantly gone down in the past three decades.
Against this backdrop, despite advantage in armament, the military has suffered a lot of defeats as indicated by a running tally reported by the Irrawaddy News Media under a tab called war against the junta. The morale of the troops is supposedly low due to loss from the fights and inability to recruit fresh troops. The number of the actual fighting troop in a forward battalion is much lower than what it should be according to some leaked documents. Yet the Myanmar military is a 60 yr. old establishment and was once considered to be the second largest in SE Asia. It will take a while to defeat it on the battlefields given the disparity of armaments and lack of air defense weapons for the PDF and ERO troops. The democratic forces hope for it to collapse itself from within because of demoralization and corruption.
For the first time ever, the Myanmar military does not appear invincible. One of the longest lasting military dictatorships in the world is on the verge of collapse in a land where democracy may flourish if they can just get a little more assistance from the international community. The United States, being the beacon of democracy and largest defender of it in the world, is best suited to take charge and lead with example. This will be good not just for Burma but for supporting democracy in the world.
The Biden administration seems unwilling to grasp this opportunity. It has been differential handing Myanmar off to Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to fix. This is a wrong approach. Despite some well-meaning member countries, ASEAN is toothless. Its hands are tied by some member countries’ ulterior motives and Myanmar junta’s ability to exploit this weakness.
On April 24, 2021 the ASEAN leaders met in Jakarta with the junta leader Min Aung Hlaing where a negotiating vehicle referred to as the Five Point Consensus Plan was drawn up. But within 2 days, the junta walked the plan back, downplaying the agreement in a press release as mere suggestions. Since then, it has refused to meet the commitments in the Five-point Consensus. Visits by ASEAN’s special envoys have been cancelled . The junta has denied the special envoy access to Aung San Suu Kyi and other detained civilian leaders, a precondition of the visit and requirement under the consensus. The United States should stop delegating to ASEAN the Myanmar issues and step forward with bolder and stronger engagements of its own.
Through the Burma Unified through Rigorous Military Accountability Act (BURMA Act) that the President Biden signed into law on 23 December 2022 as part of the National Defense Authorization Act, Congress has now authorized the current administration to do whatever needed in achieving the objectives listed in the act. The Biden administration has the discretionary authority to make major changes. In a laymen term, the ball is in the administration’s court now. The passage of the act also does suggest that the congress sees the present administration not doing enough in supporting the pro-democracy forces in Myanmar.
The Act authorizes the appropriations of funds to assist the EROs and PDFs in their efforts in overthrowing the junta and establishing democracy in Burma through “technical and non-lethal support”. Despite not requiring the appointment of a special envoy to coordinate various forms of support and networking, the BURMA Act did not preclude one. Prescence of such a coordinator will greatly facilitate in achieving the objectives of the Act since EROs and NUG do not have experience navigating the bureaucratic web of many US government departments.
A similar view is shared by former US Ambassador to Myanmar Scot Marciel as indicated in his recent article. Ambassador Marciel who spent four years in Burma has laid out an up-to-date assessment of the country. His constructive views should be seriously considered in shaping the administration’s policy towards Burma. Earlier in the uprising, many parties in the west preferred that the NUG adhere to a political path instead of embracing an armed strategy. But the reality is that the junta senior leadership will never give up unless its own lives are threatened. Cognizant of them harboring such a mentality, the NUG calculated that an armed uprising had to be established as part of the overall strategy in toppling the junta. Now that strategy seems to be working in weakening the military.
It is understandable that Burma is not exactly Ukraine and cannot be equated as such; but the principles are the same. This is a fight for the survival of democracy when it is endangered by an authoritarian dictator with an overwhelming military advantage. Just as with the Ukrainian territorial defenses (TDFs), Myanmar PDFs have proven to be tenacious and innovative in the face of adversity. They just need more outside assistance to defeat the military.
At the same time the NUG still has some work to do in proving itself. It must demonstrate that it has a reliable organizational structure to run things. The US clearly wants to see the Myanmar resistance forces collaborating one another and working together. If NUG were to lead that task, it must show that it can earn the trust of the EROs, build a unified front and protect the rights of the minorities. Based on the experience of the past two years, it seems to be making steady progress in that direction. But the ball is in the current US administration’s court now. It’s time for a bolder US policy toward Burma.
( This Op-Ed was published in Eurasia Review on 2 March 2023.)
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