The domino theory is a geopolitical theory that drew attention in the US from the 1950s to the 1980s which hypothesized that if a country in a region came under the influence of communism, then the surrounding countries would follow in a domino effect. It was the period following WWII, when most of South East Asian nations were emerging out from under the colonial power and in the midst of establishing their own nationalist political power. The newly independent nations were in a fragile economic and political state as democracy was still in its infant stage, and business ventures were still testing the fields.
Japan had occupied the French colony of Indochina - Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos during WWII, which was then reclaimed by the French after the Japanese was defeated. In 1954, the French were defeated and Vietnam was divided into two; the north controlled by a communist nationalist government and the south under anti communist control with US support. Most European nations were fatigued and economically exhausted, recovering slowly from the heavy toll, after years of war. Their governments were weak and their people depressed, desperate and starving. The situation made them easy prey and vulnerable to communist infiltration and propaganda. Asia was just as susceptible to communist expansion. The government and military forces were weak and their population largely peasants were easily swayed by propaganda and recruitment. Communist infiltrators could easily move in and out of some countries as the borders were not properly policed or secured. The same risks existed in Latin America and Africa.
Westerners believed that the People’s Republic of China would become a trailblazer for expanding communism in Asia much as Soviet Union/Russia had done in Eastern Europe. The Chinese troops supported the communist expansion of South Korea during the Korean War in the 1950s.
At the same time, China had provided support to North Vietnam. The West believed that China would also expand communism to create a buffer between itself and potential threats. It placed a number of countries at risk of communist attacks including South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, Burma, Tibet, Malaya, Singapore, and Indonesia.
The theory first proposed by Pres. Harry S. Truman to justify military aid to Greece and turkey in the 1940s, became more popular in the 1950s when Pres. Dwight D. Eisenhower delivered his Cold War "domino theory” speech which depicted that the fall of French Indochina to the communists could create a domino effect in South East Asia. It influenced much of US foreign policy through a succession of Presidents implying that a communist victory in one nation would quickly trigger a chain reaction of communist takeovers in neighboring countries, each falling like a perfectly aligned row of dominos. This policy was used to justify increasing American military involvement in the Vietnam War. In reality, with the exception of Laos and Cambodia, communism failed to spread throughout South East Asia.
The domino theory became the basis for the US’s national strategy of containment and the reason for entering the Vietnam War. The US used its military as a significant tool to contain the spread of communism in Vietnam based on their belief in the domino theory. Every US President from Harry Truman to Richard Nixon was an advocate of the domino theory. It worked initially but as US got further embroiled in Vietnam, the theory and geopolitical considerations began to lose their importance. The costly American defeat in Vietnam led to the domino theory being discredited. Some praised it and stated that it was the US intervention that halted the expansion of communism, while others argued that it was just an ideological struggle between capitalism and communism, and misinformed US attack on anti-colonial nationalism.
It has been 50 years since the Vietnam war, most of the South East Asian nations have dramatically changed as business and economy has soared and the living standard of citizens reaching to world status. Technology and wealth expansion gave the nations with freedom the benefits of a democratic society with routine elections and prosperity growth. Even communist countries like Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia joining as full members into the ASEAN community, which was established to deter expansion of communism in Asia, were able to expand their economy and improve the living standards of their countries.
The most unfortunate nation in this whole South East Asia equation is Burma / Myanmar, left under military authoritarian rule for more than half a century since gaining their independence from the British in 1948. The mismanagement of the economy by the military plunged Burma, a potentially rich country with immense valuable natural resources, into one of the poorest country in the world. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the only leader of the NLD (the National league of Democracy) who dared to challenge the junta was put under house arrest after winning the election in 1990. The international community around the world lobbied for her release and global leaders imposed sanctions on the junta. Then the junta released her in 2011 and seemingly made some reforms to initiate the democratic transition. The NLD tried to compromise and the world slowly eased and lifted some sanctions to rebuild the country. Meanwhile, the military still had 25% control of the constitution. The NLD won the November 2020 election, by a landslide majority but General Min Aung Hlaing staged a coup on February 1, 2021 and detained all the civilian political leaders and took over the country. The coup sparked countrywide protests and was responded with brutal, violent and inhumane acts by the security forces. More than 800 people including children have been killed, over 3800 people arrested. The UN and the civilized world persuaded the ASEAN to negotiate and resolve the crisis.
The 10 nation regional body of ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nation) of which Burma is a current member is a body made up of nations of questionable political background. Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia are under communist governments, Brunei, an Absolute Muslim Monarchy, Indonesia and Malaysia are liberal Muslim states. Thailand and Burma/Myanmar are controlled by military constitutions, and the Philippines a democratic nation run by an undemocratic authority. The coup leader of Myanmar was invited to the April 24, 2021 meeting at Jakarta, Indonesia, but not even one member of the newly elected government NUG (National Unity Government) was present at the meeting. The outcome was not a favorable one and it seems ASEAN hiding behind its non interference policy has no integrity, does not have a back bone and has caved under pressure again. Without a firm, decisive action to back up empty promises it was proven to be just a waste of time, just a way to divert attention from the real problem at hand. The military has not even flinched or made any attempt to abide by any of ASEAN’s proposal.
It is clear that most of ASEAN nations do not have any intention or motive to change Myanmar into a true democratic state in the South East Asia region because politics is always in motion of continuous activity. The outcome of the April meeting only allowed it to prolong the struggle of the Myanmar people under military authoritarian rule, not to resolve it.
Meanwhile, South East Asia’s most powerful neighbor China has been expanding its military power claiming most of South China Sea since 2015, Indian Ocean where Bay of Bengal is part of the Myanmar coastal line has become a geopolitical hot spot for the US and the Western power to deter the China expansion. China’s new found wealth and economic power allowed it to flex its muscle in the region intimidating weaker nations. ASEAN became a new geopolitical field where Chinese could influence ASEAN and involve in Myanmar politics as a mediator to resolve the dire crisis of the country. General Min Aung Hlaing returned to the country but so far has made no attempt to free the detained leaders nor has made any progress to relinquish the violence towards the civilians.
The people of Myanmar are determined as ever to overcome any obstacle and fight for their freedom and democratic rights. When this wave of Democracy and Freedom eliminates the military regime in Myanmar the voices of the people in other nations in Asia will also rise up and swiftly push away other authoritarian rule countries in South East Asia.
After the humiliating defeat of the Vietnam War, the domino theory has proven ineffective when communism did not spread as predicted throughout South East Asia. The US and other western nations then applied another theory and supported Ba’athist Iraq during the Iran- Iraq war, fearing the spread of Iran’s radical theocracy throughout the region. In 2003, to justify the invasion of Iraq, some argued that when a democratic government is implemented, it would help spread democracy and liberalism across the Middle East. Referred to as a ‘reverse domino theory’ or a ‘democratic domino theory’, namely because its effects are considered positive, not negative by the western democratic states.
Would this theory have the same effect in Myanmar when the democratic system has been restored, would the dominos fall in the opposite direction in a reverse way - a positive direction? Is this the other ASEAN nations afraid of when Myanmar becomes democratic? Many scenarios can be presented by experts and analysts, but one thing for certain is that the generation Z youth, combined with NUG (National Unity Government ) and the newly formed precursory army to a federal army, PDF (People’s Defense Force ) believe that a negative mind will never result in a positive outcome. They are not going to cling on to false hopes and wait for the UN and the international community to intervene and help, while the bloodbath in the country still continues. They will persevere with optimism as their courage, to abolish military rule in Myanmar for good. Our Fight must Prevail!!
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