It has been more than 70 years since Adolf Hitler invaded Denmark and Norway on the 9th of April 1940. From then on Hitler continued to flex his mighty military power towards the rest of Europe, westward to Great Britain, eastward to Russia. The continent cost millions of lives and trillions of dollars in damage. It erased cultures as well. It seemed to be the last of the major wars in Europe until February 24, 2022, when another authoritarian named Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine with his powerful military machine. After the fall of Soviet Union, Ukraine became one of the fifteen independent nation states. Since the breakup of the Red Empire, Putin dreamed of resurrecting Greater Russia by starting to influence the former soviet authoritarian republics. In 2008, Moscow invaded Georgia, and in 2014, Crimea was annexed. The Kremlin extended its global influence in Syria.
Since the turn of the century, Putin systematically secured unprecedented presidential power having unchallenged authority in every sector of politics, economy and the military with unchecked self-interests. After 20 years of economic “reform”, Russia had become one of the economic powerhouses due to increased oil and gas exports especially to European nations, accumulating foreign reserves reaching $ 600 Billion. This gave Russia the resources to rebuild its military might to catch up with its former rival super power; the United States. In addition to this, Putin made partnership with former nemesis China in the last decade, leading to overconfidence as one of the three most powerful leaders in the world- US, China and Russia.
For the last 22 years, Putin evolved into this stage in Russian political circles by hand shaking and hob knobbing with almost all Western leaders including past and present presidents and prime ministers. The longevity of his reign gave him confidence that he can do it all – political power, business empire and military might either regionally or globally. Now he set his sights on Ukraine as part of his reconsolidating imperial nationalism.
The signal of Putin’s march towards Ukraine came during the Beijing Winter Olympics. According to The New York Times, China endorsed Russia’s opposition to further NATO’s expansion” and declared “friendship between the two states has no limits” which Putin saw as a green light to carry out the invasion. Russia was reportedly asked to delay invading Ukraine until after the Olympic games. Meanwhile, America was communicating with China and was sharing information regarding the planned invasion on Ukraine.
The question is “can China rescue Russia?” Maybe! Perhaps China can play a role in solving the Russian invasion as Russia is being rendered at the point of collapse economically and isolated under Putin. China could engage with United States, European (E.U. and NATO members). Optimistically, with the three united powers, China could guide Russia (with the co-operation of Putin) to get out of this sinking hole from Ukraine.
April 28th was the 64th day of Russian invasion in Ukraine. It has been the most distractive and destructive military actions since World War II in Europe. There was no sign of easing tensions after five rounds of negotiations and two renewal of so-called peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. The entire world has watched the massive loss of life, including children and elderly people. Tens of millions have been displaced as the Russians use scorched-earth tactics targeting schools, hospitals, and civilian targets.
There is evidence of information sharing between Russia and China before the war began. When the United States National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese Politburo member Yang Jiechi met in Rome, there was no agreement as to how to handle Ukraine and the Russian invasion. At the same time the Chinese Ambassador in Washington continued to give different message as if China were the peace maker and stood neutral. For an American audience, China’s tone has softened. Qin Gang, Beijing’s ambassador to Washington, wrote in the Washington Post on 15th of March that “The sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine, must be respected” – an apparent swipe at quasi-ally Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said “Ukraine is effectively part of Russia.”[1] However, there is no question that the Chinese media has sought to promote Russian propaganda over all its media platforms.
Ukraine President Zelensky has asked for no-fly zone over Ukraine. The whole picture and political landscape were missing in this demand for a no-fly zone which remains critical for Ukraine’s defense. There is concern that the implementation of a no-fly zone would lead to a direct clash between Russia and NATO including US. This could expand the war in possibly escalate to a nuclear exchange.
What is the role of China? A bystander or an opportunist?
First, China would like the international community to think they are neutral—but there is no question they are supporting Russia; perhaps not militarily but certainly politically.
Secondly, China attempts to divide European and United States to make the western alliance weaker. As Russia is weakened by sanctions and militarily drained by the war, China quietly looks to assume an even greater-power status. Today, Russian forces haves not succeeded in their military or political goals in Ukraine and the west remains united. The war has inflicted a horrible cost on Russia including its Black Sea Flagship, Moskva.
Thirdly, China’s hidden strategic plan looks to be the ignition of a limited war in Europe between Russia and NATO. This is the scenario where the Dragon is watching over the fight between the Lion and the Bear to see who would be defeated while awaiting to eliminate the wounded one in the end. China will also be emboldened to take over Taiwan if NATO and US bogged down in Europe.
China has been waiting patiently in the wings by playing an extremely delicate game and biding its time to do the most damage to one of the superpowers in this war. If the US or NATO, makes a wrong move and directly gets engaged with Russia, it will fall into an ultimate trap and only strengthen China.
Foreign policy is unequivocally based both on logical national interest and pragmatic solutions. It must be handled with long term vision and deep wisdom to weigh the risks and benefits for present and future generations. The decisions made today will reflect on outcomes for tomorrow. What we learn today must have a comprehensive understanding of the next opponent’s strategy. An example is establishing a no-fly zone. It may seem to be beneficial tactically to counter Russian’s superiority over the sky, but it would be a full commitment to confront any Russian aerial assault which would be inevitable. A full-scale intervention by NATO forces could lead to an all-out nuclear war. There is no upside for China in this scenario.
At the end, no one will be a winner in a nuclear exchange—not even China!
[1] Ukraine crisis driving US-China further apart.US-China top-level meeting showed few if any signs of the will to cooperate in fixing the Ukraine problem. By Daniel Williams March 17, 2022 .Asian Times
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